All to play for in Clare

With just 3 days to go till election day its all to play for in the Clare election. The allocation of the seats is wide open  and it is a brave man that would predict the outcome. The Clare People today published an opinion poll that didn't really shed any new light on the what might happen. The poll is based on a survey of 500 people. It predicts Pat Breen & Joe Carey will secure a seat. That is probably a safe assumption.


After this it will be a dogfight amongst 5 candidates for the remaining  2 seats;

The poll suggests that Fianna Fail's two candidates, Timmy Dooley and Dr John Hillery  are running neck and neck.  Also  is the mix are Tony Mulcahy of Fine Gael, Labour's Michael MacNamara and Independent James Breen. There are a large number of other independents in the field but they are not expected to feature at the business end of the count.

 A number of scenarios are possible that are not mutually exclusive;

Labour's MacNamara chasing party's first seat since 1992

•  The home county of the party's spiritual leader, Eamon De Valera may not deliver a seat for Fianna Fáil. This is an unlikely though certainly not inconceivable  scenario.
• Fine Gael may take 3 seats, something that would be hugely significant   towards an overall majority for the party.
• The Banner may vote in Independent candidate James Breen. Breen is arguably Fianna Fáil's gene pool, he denies this though it is a widely held belief.  He is a renowned vote getter who just failed to retain his seat in 2007. In the recent local elections he polled over 2,000 votes.  Breen stands very much on local issues and inparticular champions the local Ennis General Hospital. During the campaign he vowed to bring down the government in support of the hospital.
• If Fianna Fáil secure one seat it is difficult to predict the winner. Outgoing and poll topperTimmy Dooley  is under pressure from Hillery. Hillery's family connections will go down well in the west of the county  and he is making a good impression. A difficulty for the Soldier's of Destiny is a split vote and the probable lack  of transfers could see them both stranded



Independent James Breen in the hunt.

• Clare may elect a labour candidate for the first time since 1992. Michael MacNamara, a veteran of the last european election, is from the east of the county.

At this late stage  it's going to be a fascinating to see how the people vote. The count in the West County will be the place to be on Saturday when history will be made one way or the other.

 My call; Breen FG, Carey FG, Hillery FF and McNamara Lab though not putting any money on it. Anything can happen!